Just as other companies have their own capital and decide whether to use it to expand their business, hold more cash reserves, or invest in certain assets, Probinex does the same with its own capital when deciding whether to hold cash or invest in cryptocurrency markets.

What about our portfolio?

If you are a member of our Telegram channel, you may have read in one of Adam's messages that at the beginning of last month, we had approximately 80% of our capital in positions.

The market structure was identified as bullish, and the entry points were selected based on levels derived from technical analysis.

With the benefit of hindsight, it is clear that this was the right move.

Our open spot positions show that we are currently betting on fundamentally strong projects:

• BTC +15.43%

• ETH +11.18%

• SOL -5.15%

• BNB +4.11%

• LINK -15.39%

The gains in BTC clearly reflect that the number one cryptocurrency is the clear market leader. From the market events mentioned below, it is clear that Bitcoin is off to a really good start and has probably not yet reached its peak. And I'm not necessarily talking about the price peak, but rather in terms of adoption and recognition by governments, institutions, and companies. And that's saying something when Bitcoin itself is already the sixth most valuable asset in the world by market capitalization, surpassing even Alphabet (Google).

In the last article, we mentioned that Ethereum's position was taking a beating. The accumulation of this position was the result of identifying a potential oversold situation, where ETH had been under heavy fire from critics for several months, but sales did not match the positive technological developments. When the selling pressure exhausted itself and the catalyst in the form of the Pectra update reignited interest in ETH, the price rose by almost 40%. Even this larger spot position is now nicely in the black.

Our smaller positions in SOL and LINK are not doing well. We consider both projects to be fundamentally essential cryptocurrency projects, but currently all altcoins are bleeding quite badly. There are, of course, exceptions (HYPE), but in general, while Bitcoin is sucking capital inflows from funds and other investment entities, altcoins are not enjoying such interest yet.

Our Probinex portfolio is currently over 90% in the market, with the allocation increasing mainly due to the fact that we did not close any positions and the price increase led to an increase in the value of the positions.

We did not close any positions in May and did not engage in more active futures trading, so StayKing will not distribute PBX for May.

Two scenarios

We are currently monitoring and expecting two main scenarios for further developments:

1. Rapid extraction of liquidity below USD 100,000 and subsequent return

2. If the price of bitcoin falls slightly below the round 100,000 mark in the short term and quickly returns above it, we will remain in our positions. In this case, we will only adjust stop-losses to secure the overall profit against AUM.

3. A deeper decline to USD 98,000–96,000

4. If the market experiences a major downturn, we are prepared to close most positions and switch to a more conservative mode. This option would signal that the bullish trend is losing steam and that capital needs to be protected.

The value around USD 106,000 acts as strong resistance – the price is rejected around this area. Current trading around $104,000 shows market indecision. The volume profile clearly shows the highest historical liquidity between $92,000 and $96,000, which supports the idea of a possible return to this area. If the decline stops here and new buying volumes appear, it could be an ideal “reset” for further growth.

Our portfolio is exposed to the market, but not in a reckless way. We are working with possible scenarios and are ready to quickly switch between aggressive and defensive strategies. Technical analysis shows a possible slowdown in growth, but the trend remains bullish for now. Bitcoin is still above 100k, and as long as it stays at these levels, the market has a chance to continue upward.

Bitcoin new ATH

Bitcoin entered May with guns blazing. The world’s largest cryptocurrency surged past its previous peak, reaching a record high around $109,760 in May. This eclipse of the prior January high marked Bitcoin’s official return to “blue sky” territory.

What fueled the rally? In large part, an abrupt about-face in global economic winds. Early in the month, easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China helped soothe investors’ nerves. President Trump, who had wreaked havoc in April with tariff hikes, agreed to a 90-day truce and even slashed some tariffs (the U.S. cut rates on Chinese goods to 41%, from 125% in April. Beijing reciprocated with lower tariffs of its own.

The tentative ceasefire in the trade war acted like a pressure release valve for global markets. Equities stabilized and risk assets rallied – and many believe some of that capital flowed straight into Bitcoin as a hedge against future turmoil.

However, true to crypto’s character, the euphoria met a test late in the month. On May 23, President Trump lobbed fresh tariff threats – this time targeting the EU and even American tech icon Apple – in a sudden escalation of trade saber-rattling. Global stocks stumbled on the news, and Bitcoin’s rally paused.

By end of May, Bitcoin was holding around the $105K level. Bitcoin’s resilience underscored a shifting perception: more investors now view it as a safe-haven asset, a digital counterpart to gold, when geopolitical and fiscal uncertainties rise.

Ethereum Leaps Forward with the Pectra Upgrade

If Bitcoin was grabbing headlines with price milestones, Ethereum was busy making history of its own. On May 7, Ethereum’s long-awaited “Pectra” network upgrade went live on the mainnet – the largest upgrade since the 2022 Merge. The upgrade introduced major improvements, basically makes Ethereum more scalable and easier to use, a significant step toward Ethereum’s goal of being the go-to platform for decentralized applications.

Ether (ETH) prices surged almost 30% https://calebandbrown.com/blog/weekly-rollup-may-13-2025 in the week following the upgrade. Ethereum opened the month near $1,800 and rocketed to about $2,600 by mid-May. At one point on May 11, ETH was up 28.9% week-on-week, vastly outperforming most other top assets.

This leap was fueled by an influx of positive sentiment – developers and ETH holders alike celebrated Pectra’s success as proof that Ethereum’s roadmap is very much on track. All told, May reminded everyone that Ethereum is not standing still; it’s evolving rapidly, and the market is taking notice. It’s worth noting that Ethereum’s rally, while impressive, still lagged Bitcoin’s in scale. And by month’s end, ETH hovered around $2,500 – a strong gain, but still far from its own all-time high. Yet the momentum  is at least somewhat back. Even institutional crypto funds saw returning inflows into Ether-focused products in May (after months of outflows), albeit in modest amounts.

Coinbase full speed ahead

Coinbase was officially added to the S&P 500 index on May 19 – the first crypto-native firm ever in that blue-chip stock club. This index inclusion is a symbolic triumph, showing that traditional market gatekeepers now consider crypto a legitimate sector of the economy. Coinbase’s stock jumped over 8% on the news, adding billions to its market value.

For the crypto world, seeing “COIN” join the likes of Apple and Microsoft was like a coming-of-age ceremony, one that would have been hard to imagine a few years ago.

Coinbase didn’t stop there. In early May, the exchange announced a $2.9 billion deal to acquire Deribit, a leading crypto options platform.

Deribit – known for Bitcoin and Ether options – gives Coinbase a major foothold in the lucrative crypto derivatives market, especially in Europe and Asia. The move underscores an arms race to serve institutional traders: with this deal, Coinbase can offer sophisticated hedging instruments and leverage products to clients globally. Analysts cheered the strategy, noting that if U.S. regulators eventually green-light crypto derivatives domestically, Coinbase will be primed to dominate that arena as well. It’s no coincidence that this expansion comes as President Trump loudly promises to make America the “global center” of crypto.

Broader crypto acceptance in USA

Donald Trump’s outsized presence in crypto continued to dominate headlines in May. On May 26, news broke that Trump Media & Technology Group (the former president’s social media company) is planning to raise a staggering $3 billion to invest directly in cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

According to insiders, TMTG aims to raise $2 billion in new equity and another $1 billion via a bond offering, all to pour into crypto assets. If successful, this would be one of the largest treasury allocations to Bitcoin ever by a private firm – effectively turning Trump’s media outfit into a quasi-Bitcoin investment vehicle.

The message was hard to miss: this White House views crypto as a strategic priority. Indeed, President Trump often touts his goal of making the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world,” tying American technological dominance to embracing Bitcoin and blockchain innovation. But as May showed, this full-throated support is also breeding fierce backlash. Congressional Democrats demanded an investigation into a secretive fundraiser Trump held for his cryptocurrency venture. Representative Jamie Raskin sent a public letter calling for details on a private dinner at Trump’s Virginia golf club, where wealthy investors paid tens of millions to buy into Trump’s new $TRUMP memecoin.

The coming months will reveal whether Trump’s $3 billion crypto gamble pays off financially – and how it will weather the ethical and legal scrutiny now swelling in Washington.

A DeFi Cautionary Tale: The $200M Sui Hack

For all the bullish progress in May, one incident served as a stark reminder of crypto’s ongoing risks. In late May, the Sui blockchain’s DeFi ecosystem suffered a massive exploit that shook user confidence. Cetus DEX, the largest decentralized exchange on the new Sui network, was hit by a sophisticated hack on May 22. Over the span of hours, an attacker drained an estimated $200–223 million worth of tokens from Cetus’s liquidity pools.

In response, Sui’s validators and the foundation scrambled into action: they froze about $160 million of the stolen assets by flagging and ignoring the exploiter’s addresses. This coordinated emergency response – effectively halting the thief’s ability to move funds – was remarkable, but it also raised eyebrows. Sui’s community praised the quick reaction to contain the damage, yet some observers noted that freezing assets at the validator level edged into controversial territory for a “decentralized” network.

Conclusion

Wars in Israel, Ukraine, and rising tensions around Taiwan are making the world feel more unstable, and that’s shaking up global markets. At the same time, the U.S. is printing more money while drowning in debt, which is making people lose trust in the dollar. Central banks are stuck—they want to fight inflation, but also don’t want to crash their economies, so no one’s sure what they’ll do next. As regular money gets weaker and governments look shakier, more people are starting to see Bitcoin as a safer place to put their money. It’s no longer just a gamble—it’s becoming a backup plan for uncertain times.