Like other companies, Probinex has its own capital and decides whether to use it to expand its business, maintain higher cash reserves, or invest in assets. Probinex manages its capital in a similar way, considering whether to hold cash, expand its activities or invest in cryptocurrency markets.

What about our porfolio?

In June, we did not close any spot positions or actively trade futures, so the PBX we are distributing this month comes exclusively from the contribution generated by the Earnio product for the month of May.  

We are therefore distributing 18,164 USDC in StayKing, for a total of 819,143 PBX. 

At the beginning of June 2025, in an article on StayKing's results, we published a brief analysis describing two main scenarios for the development of the Bitcoin price, which we are now focusing on. The first scenario assumed a rapid withdrawal of liquidity below USD 100,000, followed by a rapid return above this level, while the second scenario involved a deeper correction to the range of USD 98,000–96,000. The first scenario actually came true, and thanks to that, we can now look at how we dealt with the situation. 

Summary of developments in June 2025 

The price of Bitcoin in June did indeed briefly fall below USD 100,000, with the daily candlesticks on the chart briefly dipping to around 98,000, before the price returned above the key USD 100,000 level. 

This movement confirmed our first scenario, which was a rapid withdrawal of liquidity in the $93,000–$100,000 zone, which was clearly identified as an area of high liquidity. The return above $100,000 was accompanied by increased buying volumes, suggesting that this correction served as a “reset” for further growth, exactly as we had anticipated.  

At the end of June, the price stabilized around $107,500, signaling consolidation after a rapid recovery. The USD 93,000–100,000 zone, which we identified as key due to its high liquidity, successfully halted the decline. The return above USD 100,000, accompanied by an increase in volumes, confirmed that the bullish momentum remains strong, as we expected. We have therefore only tightened our protective stop-loss positions slightly so that they close at a profit in the event of another decline.

Current situation 

The USD 108,000 level remains strong resistance for now. This level has been tested several times, but the market has not yet been able to break through this zone convincingly. (Even now, at the time of writing this article on July 3, it is trying to do so). 

Key support is in the range of $98,000–$100,000, where the market found support during the June correction. Another significant support lies in the range of $93,000–$96,000, which corresponds to the high liquidity zone according to the volume profile. 

What to expect next 

Based on the current situation, the following scenarios can be expected: 

1. Resistance breakout (USD 108,000): If the price convincingly breaks through 108,000, there is only one obstacle ahead in the form of the all-time high around USD 111,000. Above that, there is only an “empty chart,” typical of Bitcoin price discovery. 

2.  Consolidation in the $100,000–$108,000 range: The current consolidation may continue for several weeks if the market remains above $100,000 but does not exceed the resistance at $108,000. This phase could be an accumulation phase before the next major move. It is somewhat supported by the uncertainty surrounding Donald Trump's actions and his tariffs vs. a possible interest rate cut by the Fed. However, the mood is more that market participants want to go up rather than wait for a signal to short. 
   

3. Correction to USD 93,000–96,000: If the bullish trend mentioned in the previous sentence weakens, for example due to macroeconomic pressures, the price could retest the USD 93,000–96,000 zone. However, this area should remain strong support, as confirmed by the volume profile. 

Our position 

From the description above, it looks like the classic joke that “the market will either go up, down, or sideways.” In reality, however, we are not counting on a downward movement (and even if we did, most positions would already be closing at a profit), but are focusing more on long spot trading. 

In our last article, we reported allocating more than 90% of capital to open positions when the market structure showed bullish characteristics. Our strategy, based on technical analysis and a focus on fundamentally strong projects, continues to prove the right choice. 

Bitcoin confirms its dominance 

Bitcoin continues to grow and remains the clear market leader. This growth is supported by continued adoption by institutions and governments, confirming Bitcoin as a globally recognized asset. It is currently the sixth most valuable asset in the world, and its importance continues to grow. 

Ethereum continues to recover 

Ethereum has also improved since the last update. Among other things, this growth is driven by speculation about the possible approval of ETFs on ETH, which would allow ETH to be staked, turning ETFs into an investment vehicle with a natural yield. While this is still speculation, it has increased investor interest. Our accumulation of $ETH in the oversold zone has proven to be strategically correct, and the position remains significantly profitable. 

Solana and Chainlink face challenges 

Our smaller positions in $SOL and $LINK continue to lag behind. Despite these losses, we consider both projects to be fundamentally strong. The current weaker performance of altcoins is a general market trend, with most alternative cryptocurrencies still waiting for a larger influx of capital. Bitcoin and a few select altcoins, such as $HYPE, $AAVE, and $BNB, are attracting attention, but they are rather exceptions. 

Currently, the Probinex portfolio is more than 91% invested, with the increase in allocation being a natural consequence of the growth in the value of our positions. 

We did not close any positions or actively trade futures in June, so the PBX we are distributing this month comes exclusively from our Earnio product's contribution for May. 

Our strategy remains consistent – we focus on fundamentally strong projects and use technical analysis to optimize entries. Despite short-term fluctuations in some altcoins, we are confident that the long-term potential of our positions remains strong.  

Market Analysis

Trump vs Powell – Pushing for Rate Cuts and Pumping Risk Assets

The U.S. President’s rivalry with the Fed hit new highs this month. Donald Trump loudly criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding aggressive rate cuts. He insisted interest rates should be slashed by “at least two to three percentage points,” even calling Powell “terrible” and hinting he’d replace him with a more compliant candidate.

Such political pressure on the Fed is highly unusual – raising concerns about central bank independence – but it also carried market implications. A sharply cheaper dollar and easier monetary policy would be a boon for stocks and crypto alike. Indeed, investors began pricing in a dovish shift: risk assets from equities to Bitcoin ticked upward as the White House agitated for looser policy. Bitcoin nudged higher to around $107K mid-month while the U.S. dollar slid to a 3-year low on expectations of a more accommodative Fed ahead.

The promise of easier money had traders in a risk-on mood. Still, some warned that meddling with monetary policy carries long-term risks – from rekindling inflation to undermining trust in U.S. financial stewardship. For now, though, Trump’s Fed feud signaled potential tailwinds for crypto, as lower rates and a weaker dollar tend to strengthen the case for Bitcoin and other non-inflationary assets. 

Elon Musk vs Donald Trump – A Political Sideshow 

In a bizarre subplot, Elon Musk and President Trump clashed in public – though fortunately for crypto investors, this feud was more spectacle than market mover.

The tech billionaire took to social media to slam Trump’s massive spending package. An irate Trump fired back on Truth Social, suggesting Musk was upset over an EV mandate and quipping that his administration would “have to take a look” at deporting Musk despite his U.S. citizenship.

Entertaining, yes, but with zero direct impact on Bitcoin or other digital assets. Traders mostly shrugged off the Musk–Trump tiff, recognizing it as a political sideshow unrelated to crypto fundamentals. It’s a reminder that not every big name spat on X (Twitter) translates into meaningful market moves. 

Middle East Turmoil – Oil Scare Jolts Crypto, Then Fades Quickly 

Geopolitics made an impact when a sudden conflict flared in the Middle East. Early in the month, Israel launched surprise strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities, drawing retaliatory missile fire and even U.S. military intervention over subsequent days. The escalation sparked a classic risk-off reaction: oil prices surged on fears of supply disruption, and global stocks wobbled.

Brent crude spiked from under $70 to over $81 per barrel at one point after U.S. airstrikes on Iran – a 15% jump amid the war scare. Crypto wasn’t immune: Bitcoin and its peers dipped initially as traders braced for broader market turmoil. But crucially, this volatility proved short-lived. Within days, cooler heads and diplomacy prevailed. A tentative ceasefire between Israel and Iran was announced (with the U.S. urging restraint), and the worst-case outcomes were avoided.

Crypto markets quickly stabilized as well. Bitcoin’s price, which had briefly slid on the initial news, demonstrated resilience in the face of armed conflict. In fact, over the roughly 10-day episode, BTC’s net move was negligible – after an orderly dip to about $98,000 during the peak hostilities, Bitcoin rebounded above the psychological $100K mark by week’s end

By the time the dust settled, the world’s top cryptocurrency was only about 1.3% down from its pre-war price. This rapid recovery showed that while wars and geopolitical shocks can cause knee-jerk selloffs, the crypto market is learning to take such news in stride. Investors remembered that macro trends and fundamentals often matter more than fleeting military headlines.    

Big Buyers Step In – Corporations Double Down and New ETFs Loom 

One of the most bullish undercurrents in June was the surge of institutional and corporate interest in Bitcoin. Major companies and asset managers are not just paying lip service – they’re putting serious money into crypto. In fact, recent data shows public companies added about 131,000 BTC to their treasuries in a single quarter (Q2), an 18% jump in holdings. Corporate balance sheets now hold more Bitcoin than some of the largest exchange-traded funds do, marking the third straight quarter that businesses outpaced ETFs in BTC accumulation.

The torchbearer of this trend remains MicroStrategy – or simply “Strategy,” as the firm rebranded itself in its crypto-centric second life. Strategy’s legendary CEO Michael Saylor has continued amassing Bitcoin relentlessly. The company now sits on a jaw-dropping 597,000 BTC stash cementing its status as the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world. And it’s not alone: over 140 public companies globally have followed a similar playbook of allocating to BTC, emboldened by Strategy’s example and Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend. This wave of institutional adoption signals a profound shift – Bitcoin is being treated as “digital gold” for treasury reserves, a hedge against both inflation and financial instability. 

At the same time, crypto ETFs (exchange-traded funds) are proliferating and opening the floodgates to even more investors. June saw record inflows into Bitcoin and Ethereum-focused ETFs, as traditional funds poured nearly $6 billion of fresh capital into these vehicles. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led the pack, pulling in almost $4 billion and underscoring Wall Street’s appetite for Bitcoin exposure. Buoyed by this success, the market is buzzing that U.S. regulators will soon approve additional crypto ETFs beyond just BTC and ETH. Analysts now predict the SEC is likely to greenlight funds for Solana, Litecoin, and even XRP in the coming months. In fact, some give these products a 95% chance of approval by year’s end, given the shifting regulatory climate. If realized, that means mainstream investors could easily buy a basket of top altcoins through regulated ETFs – a development almost unthinkable just a year or two ago.

Other popular digital assets (from Dogecoin and Cardano to Polkadot and Avalanche) are also on the radar, with observers expecting 90%+ odds of ETF approval for several of them not long after. This optimism stems from a markedly more crypto-friendly U.S. administration. The current White House under President Trump has explicitly supported digital asset innovation, creating a political environment where regulators feel emboldened to integrate crypto into the financial system. The upshot for the crypto market is a virtuous cycle: more institutional products lead to more institutional money, which in turn validates the space and can drive prices higher. With corporations stacking sats (satoshis) on their balance sheets and Wall Street engineering ever more avenues for exposure, crypto’s footing in the investment world has never been stronger. 

Circle’s Blockbuster IPO – Crypto Hits Wall Street in Style 

In a landmark moment for the industry, Circle Internet Financial – the issuer of the USDC stablecoin – went public on the New York Stock Exchange this month. And it didn’t just tiptoe in; it roared.

Circle’s IPO debut on June 5 was an eye-opener even for market veterans. Priced at $31 a share, the stock (ticker CRCL) opened at a hefty premium and by the end of its first trading day had nearly tripled. In fact, Circle’s shares rocketed almost 290% above the IPO price in short order one of the most explosive openings in recent memory. The company’s market cap blew past $20 billion during that frenzy, far exceeding initial expectations. This wildly successful offering sent an unequivocal message: public market investors are hungry for credible crypto companies.

A regulated, revenue-generating firm like Circle – whose USDC stablecoin business straddles both crypto and traditional finance – proved immensely attractive. The IPO’s reception was such a vote of confidence that it kicked off what analysts are calling a “crypto IPO season.” Within days of Circle’s listing, several other crypto firms signaled plans to follow suit, filing paperwork to go public.

Among them were Gemini (the exchange founded by the Winklevoss twins) and Bullish (a Peter Thiel-backed exchange) – both aiming to ride the momentum sparked by Circle. There’s talk that even larger players like Kraken and ConsenSys could be next in line to test the public markets. For crypto enthusiasts, this trend is incredibly validating. It means blockchain businesses are now mature enough to meet the disclosure and compliance standards of stock exchanges – and that investors see real value in them.  

Scandal in Prague – A Bitcoin Bust for the Czech Minister 

In the Czech Republic, Justice Minister Pavel Blažek was forced to resign after a Bitcoin fiasco that captivated local media. The controversy arose when it became public that Blažek’s ministry had swiftly sold off a cache of 480 BTC (worth around $45 million) that was donated to the state by a convicted criminal. The donor, Tomáš Jiřikovský, is a notorious darknet marketplace operator who had been imprisoned for drug trafficking. After serving time, Jiřikovský managed to hand over a portion of his long-lost bitcoin stash to the government – ostensibly as a form of restitution or goodwill. Rather than hold these coins, the Justice Ministry immediately liquidated the entire sum via auction for nearly 1 billion Czech koruna (channeling the proceeds into a victims’ compensation fund and new prison equipment). But what might have been trumpeted as a win for the state soon backfired.

News of the secretive sale triggered public outcry and political backlash. Opposition lawmakers loudly questioned the propriety of accepting and selling “tainted” crypto assets from a felon. The word “money laundering” started floating around in headlines, as critics accused the ministry of essentially legitimizing illicit funds. The Czech police’s organized crime unit even launched an investigation into how the donation was handled. Under pressure, Minister Blažek defended the transaction as entirely lawful – going so far as to claim “it was so ultra-legal that it couldn’t be more legal,” and arguing that a convict should be allowed to give something back to the state as penance. Nonetheless, the optics were terrible. With an election on the horizon and opponents calling for heads to roll, Blažek chose to fall on his sword. He announced his resignation “after agreement with the Prime Minister,” saying he wasn’t aware of any wrongdoing but did not want to tarnish the government’s reputation.

The saga served as a stark lesson in crypto governance: even when legal, dealing with seized or donated digital assets requires utmost transparency. For the crypto market, the Blažek affair didn’t directly move prices, but it did spark debate about how authorities handle large crypto sums – and it underscored the importance of clear regulations to prevent mistrust. In the end, a billion-coruna Bitcoin cash-out cost a minister his job, proving that in politics, perception can trump profits.