“…exactly as you wrote, look, we’re not doing totally, totally like it’s wow-great, however, we’re doing quite well and the only thing I’m currently thinking about is whether, for the positions where we’re at break even, I should reduce…”

This is one of the messages we exchanged with the portfolio manager as part of our monthly discussion about the performance evaluation of the Probinex portfolio. 

What about our portfolio?

This is one of the messages we exchanged with the portfolio manager as part of our monthly discussion about the performance evaluation of the Probinex portfolio.

I think it nicely, albeit a bit cryptically (meaning “hidden,” not “related to crypto”), describes the current state of our portfolio. When it comes to active trading, our strategy is cautious, even though we are more oriented toward long positions (trading with the expectation of price growth). Some positions were in loss during parts of April, but thanks to the rise in BTC price, especially in the second half of the month, they reached break even or are in profit. In trading, we strive to be cautious, avoid overtrading, and only open high-quality positions, especially from the technical analysis perspective. Market signals can be quite confusing right now. While we expect a long-term upward trend in bitcoin's price, predicting price movements in the short term is relatively difficult. The unpredictable behaviour of the US president doesn’t help either. 

“Except for Ethereum — Ethereum really bothers me — we’re doing, let’s say, great…” 

Our spot position on ETH is taking a hit. The number two cryptocurrency has been struggling for months to deal with increasing criticism, both from holders of the asset and from within its own community. I’ve written several times about the issues with ETH. In our portfolio, we tried to trade a potential upward movement, but that hasn’t come yet. We’re currently having intense discussions about how to handle this spot position and whether/when a price rise will come. 
 
One of the things we’re tackling is what portion of the portfolio to deploy into the market, and what part to secure or sell to have more funds available in case of a market drop. That would allow us to lower the average purchase price even more.  

One final optimistic note: 
 
“…if May is strong, we’ll be booking some nice profits…” 
 
In April, our positions in the Probinex portfolio did not generate a profit, and since March's Earnio also underperformed, we are not distributing any PBX in StayKing this month.

We can also take a look together at the most important events of the past month because April was definitely not boring for the markets and crypto. From the trade war between the US and China, through another shift in the SEC's stance on crypto, to bold bitcoin bets on Wall Street and Donald Trump’s media antics — there’s a lot going on. 

Trade War: USA vs China

April started off with a bang, as President Trump dramatically escalated the trade war between the US and China. He raised tariffs on Chinese goods to a staggering 125%, following China's earlier introduction of its own tariffs of 84%.

Global markets were shaken by this tit-for-tat: stocks fell sharply for several days, and the S&P 500 even briefly fell to its lowest level in more than a year, raising fears of a recession.

Beijing called Trump's move "economic bullying," and nervous investors shifted their funds to safe assets. According to some, this could already include Bitcoin. At the end of April, however, Trump changed his tone, suggesting that these disproportionately high tariffs on China could be "significantly reduced" (although he added that "it won't be zero"). 

This hint of possible relief helped calm the markets somewhat after a very volatile month. 

New SEC chief signals more welcoming stance on crypto 

A new "sheriff" has arrived at the SEC – and he is much more friendly towards the world of crypto. Paul Atkins was appointed SEC chairman in April, replacing the previous administration, which had taken a hard line on crypto. His first steps indicate a significantly more accommodating approach to digital assets. Under Atkins' leadership, regulators have moved quickly to dismiss an unprecedented number of crypto-related lawsuits filed during the era of former head Gary Gensler. 

The message is clear: the SEC wants to focus on real fraud that threatens investors, not technical violations of crypto rules. In line with this, Atkins chose a crypto event for his first public appearance, where he said during a roundtable discussion that he plans to create a "rational, meaningful framework" to support innovation in digital assets.

For now, though, these are just words, so it's better to be cautiously optimistic than to go crazy buying everything right now. 

Trump's media empire bets on crypto ETFs 

Trump's media empire never lets itself be outdone when it comes to trends – and this time it's really going all in on crypto investments. No Trumpcoin-style "scams." This is serious financial business. Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the company behind Truth Social, has announced a partnership with Crypto.com to launch a series of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on cryptocurrencies under the new brand "Truth⁃Fi."

The plan is to introduce several ETFs focused on digital assets that will target "Made in America" cryptocurrencies – these products should be available to investors in the US, Europe, and Asia, subject to regulatory approval. This is a bold move: according to available information, TMTG is prepared to commit up to $250 million of its own funds to support the ETFs, with Charles Schwab serving as fund manager.

The launch is expected later this year, and if all goes according to plan, Trump's media empire could become a major player in the field of mainstream crypto investment products.

It is not exactly common for a US president's company to collaborate with a crypto exchange. On the other hand, it's not common for a US president to release his own token either. With Donald Trump, basically the only thing that's normal is that nothing is normal. Depending on how much you like Donald Trump, you can interpret that sentence as a criticism or a compliment. 

Bitcoin surpassed Google in total value

Bitcoin had a truly exceptional month in April, reaching a milestone that few would have expected just a few years ago: its market value surpassed that of Google's parent company, Alphabet. The price of bitcoin jumped to approximately $94,000 per coin, bringing its market capitalization to around $1.87 trillion – just enough to surpass Alphabet, with a capitalization of around $1.859 trillion.

This leap made Bitcoin the fifth most valuable asset in the world, just behind gold and several giant technology companies. Interestingly, BTC rose 15% in April, while technology stocks (as measured by the Nasdaq 100 index) lost about 4.5%, suggesting that bitcoin is beginning to decouple from traditional stocks.

What drove this growth? Analysts point to a combination of factors, including large institutional purchases and optimism about the approval of cryptocurrency ETFs, which points to growing confidence in the future of bitcoin.

At the same time, global uncertainty (from tensions surrounding the trade war to the actions of the US Federal Reserve) has reinforced Bitcoin's perception as a safe haven – it has recently been trading more like digital gold than a tech stock. 

Overall, April brought Bitcoin not only price growth but also a new status – it literally overtook one of Silicon Valley's giants. 

Wall Street backs a $3.6 billion bitcoin project 

Finally, Wall Street and big investors have also weighed in with a massive bet on Bitcoin. Cantor Fitzgerald, the legendary brokerage firm, has joined forces with cryptocurrency giant Tether and Japan's SoftBank to form a Bitcoin-focused company called Twenty One Capital, which they plan to take public through a SPAC merger.

The entire transaction values Twenty One at a staggering $3.6 billion, with the company holding more than 42,000 BTC (worth approximately $3.6 billion) from the outset, which will form its corporate treasury. This would immediately make it one of the largest corporate holders of bitcoin in the world, alongside names such as MicroStrategy. The project has strong financial backing: Tether is contributing approximately $1.6 billion in BTC, and SoftBank is adding another $900 million, alongside other investors such as Bitfinex.

The new entity will be led by well-known bitcoin advocate Jack Mallers (CEO of Strike), who describes it as "a publicly traded company, created by bitcoiners for bitcoiners." The goal is to create an investment vehicle natively focused on bitcoin that will allow institutions (and possibly other companies) to gain exposure to BTC on their balance sheets—without having to go through the complex ETF approval process or directly hold bitcoin itself. 

This is a bold move that shows growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin: when Wall Street brokers and tech billionaires join forces to accumulate tens of thousands of BTC, it's clear that the biggest players in crypto are not giving up – on the contrary, they are doubling down.