November market analysis: How Donald Trump's victory impacted cryptocurrencies and our portfolio

Tomáš Hucík


Donald Trump has won the US presidential election. This is no longer news today.
We discussed the events leading up to his election with Adam Neuberger, co-founder of the Probinex Project, and I also mentioned them
in the article about the Earnio results.

So now, let's take a look together at what events in the cryptocurrency market have followed and also how our portfolio has coped with these developments.


 Bitcoin ETFs are breaking records

The rise of bitcoin ETFs has been truly phenomenal. US spot bitcoin ETFs have already exceeded a cumulative trading volume of $500 billion in the first year since their launch. Notably, BlackRock's ETF (IBIT) saw a net inflow of $1.25 billion in just one week, specifically from November 4 to 8. So it is literally evident that investors waited until the election results to make their decision. This milestone helped BlackRock's bitcoin ETFs outperform even their gold ETFs, which may indicate a change in investor sentiment towards digital assets.

The rising popularity of bitcoin ETFs underscores the growing acceptance of bitcoin as a serious investment option. Investor confidence is further boosted by the fact that bitcoin's market capitalization has now surpassed even that of Silver.


Coinbase introduces the crypto equivalent of the S&P 500

Coinbase has launched Coin50, a new crypto index that tracks the 50 largest digital assets by market capitalization. Coin50, referred to as the "S&P 500 of cryptocurrencies," aims to provide investors with a broad benchmark for tracking the performance of major cryptocurrencies. With the growing interest in diversified crypto-portfolios, tools like Coin50 make it easier for retail and institutional investors to track and invest in the emerging digital economy.

I mention this mainly because we have been developing a product on a similar basis for some time. We call it simply the Earnio Index. Don't tell anyone yet, it's a bit of a secret. For example, I had another meeting today, December 4, 2024, where the team and I discussed how to operationally ensure that costs are as low as possible and therefore potential returns for clients are as high as possible, and I can say that it's on a great track.


XRP is growing thanks to Gensler's departure from the SEC

The Ripple token (XRP) has seen dramatic growth and reached a three-year high after it was announced that SEC Chairman Gary Gensler will step down in January 2025. This news has sparked speculation of a possible turnaround in the regulatory approach to cryptocurrencies under new leadership.

Adding to the regulatory narrative are the actions of President-elect Donald Trump, who has made several pro-crypto decisions. He has appointed Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager with a friendly stance on cryptocurrencies, as Treasury Secretary. Trump also plans to appoint Kelly Loeffler, former CEO of Bakkt, as Agriculture Secretary. These moves suggest further support for blockchain and cryptocurrency initiatives. In addition, Trump's team is considering former SEC Commissioner Paul Atkins, known for his advocacy of cryptocurrencies, as a possible successor to Gensler.


Bitcoin Adoption: Microsoft and Michael Saylor

The adoption of bitcoin is expanding beyond the financial sector. Michael Saylor, a prominent bitcoin advocate and co-founder of MicroStrategy, recently met with Microsoft executives to discuss bitcoin integration strategies. Although the details of their meetings are not yet known, these meetings show that leading technology companies are exploring the potential of blockchain and cryptocurrencies in their ecosystems.

I could bet that a number of unnamed corporations and institutions are joining Microstrategy with purchases. And I'm almost certain that among them will be some state and semi-state entities that are not yet known.

Of those that are known, El Salvador and its bitcoins are now worth well over $500 million and Bhutan is even better off with a value of well over one billion dollars.


And now two pure crypto-issues.

Hyperliquid Airdrop

On November 29, 2024, Hyperliquid held an airdrop during which 310 million tokens HYPE were distributed, together it was 31% of the total 1 billion tokens.

The tokens were initially priced at $3.90 each, for a total of approximately $1.2 billion. After distribution, the HYPE token price increased by 63%, reaching USD 6.16, and the market capitalization was close to USD 2 billion. Well, now the price of the HYPE token is even higher at around $12. That's quite a big injection of liquidity into the market.

Interestingly, Hyperliquid hasn't allocated any tokens to private investors, centralized exchanges or market makers, emphasizing its commitment to the community.

I write about this because it's a breath of fresh air. For the past two years, we've been used to tokens being launched with limited supply in circulation and high overall valuations, a model that has benefited institutional, early stage investors in particular, but frustrated most of the crypto community. Retail buyers faced inflated prices and potential losses as more tokens were unlocked over time, raising concerns about market manipulation and availability.

Pump.fun banned videos

Pump.fun is a rapid cryptocurrency token launch platform on the Solana blockchain. It is mainly used for so-called memecoins, i.e. tokens with funny themes. Pump.fun currently churns out thousands of new memecoins on new and novel topics every day.

Recently, it has launched the possibility for the creators of these tokens to live-stream a video and thus make their token more interesting. And just as you'd expect, it went very quickly. From pornographic material to hurting pets if no one buys their memetoken. The tip of the iceberg, of course, was the videos of fake suicides and mutilations. Pump.fun therefore took the radical step of banning these popular videos. It's great that the platform understands that it bears some burden of responsibility for how people perceive cryptocurrencies as well. In fact, despite all this craziness, pump.fun is one of the key places because this is where the most basic and basal narratives are created, and these can grow into a movement of thought that will move the crypto world, or at least some parts of it.

Yeah, and also almost everyone there is losing money.


What about our portfolio?

After Donald Trump's victory in November, the price of all cryptocurrencies gradually shot up.

First it was bitcoin, followed by the rest of the cryptocurrencies in tow. All the stalwarts including Ethereum, Solana, and Doge took a ride, but there were also older dinosaurs like Stellar, Litecoin, and Vechain.

This especially helped our altcoin portfolio, where all positions are in nice profit. In addition, the stop loss protection order has now been moved above the buy level for all positions, so we will definitely realize a profit there, the only question is how big.

If you are wondering about its composition, all major and important cryptocurrency categories are represented. From Layer 1 and Layer 2 blockchains (AVAX, SUI, etc,...) to Defi applications (UNI, AAVE, etc,...) to memes or even memecoins to a small extent such as DOGE.

However, we are not closing positions on these cryptocurrencies for now. We think that the current trend hasn't run out yet and there are still profits to be made. Altcoins currently make up about 25% of the portfolio.

We were also actively trading futures in November, so the gains this month came from there.