February 2026 opened with continued pressure on precious metals following their late-January peaks, as gold and silver experienced a huge price drop at the beginning of the month.

Gold quickly recovered however and is now trading back near $5,400 per ounce amid fresh safe-haven flows.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market showed short-lived resilience mid-month with a noticeable rally tied to the Jane Street lawsuit, only to suffer a sharp reversal when the United States and Israel launched military strikes on Iran on February 28. The escalation triggered immediate risk-off sentiment across global assets.

Our positioning remained fully defensive throughout the month. We continued exactly what we started before in October: we are currently not using our capital for trading. The macroeconomical situation is clearly risky, bitcoin dropping 15 % in the final days of February alone as geopolitical headlines dominated.

This conservative approach shielded our portfolio once again from the late-February volatility and reinforced that, in periods of sudden macro shocks and rapid sentiment shifts, staying in cash remains the most prudent strategy available.

Since no positions were initiated or held during February, PBX we distribute this month comes from the Earnio Dynamic contribution from January. Therefore, 123,026.93 PBX will be distributed to participants through the Stayking program.

1. Gold and silver posted a huge price drop at the beginning of the month before gold recovered strongly to $5,400

Precious metals opened February under heavy selling pressure after their explosive January run, with leveraged positions unwinding rapidly amid shifting rate expectations and early-month profit-taking.

Silver in particular suffered steep losses, at times exceeding 40 % from its late-January record near $121–$122.

The correction proved short-lived once geopolitical tensions escalated. Gold clawed back ground aggressively and reached a one-month high near $5,400 as investors sought traditional safe havens during the unfolding Iran conflict. The metal once again demonstrated its classic role in times of uncertainty while silver lagged in the recovery phase.

2. Bitcoin staged a brief rally mid-month linked to the Jane Street lawsuit before the Iran attack triggered a sharp drop

Crypto markets found temporary relief in the third week of February when news of the Jane Street lawsuit broke. The filing, brought by the Terraform Labs administrator alleging insider trading tied to the 2022 collapse, fueled widespread speculation that alleged manipulative selling patterns (the so-called “10 a.m. dump”) would cease.

Bitcoin rallied over 6 % in a single session, briefly touching near $70,000 as retail sentiment turned bullish on the narrative that a major source of downward pressure had been exposed.

The relief proved extremely short-lived. When the United States and Israel began major combat operations against Iran on February 28, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and targeting nuclear and military sites, risk assets sold off violently.

Bitcoin plunged below $64,000 within hours, wiping out the entire post-lawsuit gain and more, with the broader market cap shedding over $100 billion in a single day.

3. US-Iran military escalation dominates headlines and sends crypto into risk-off mode

The most significant event of the month was the direct US and Israeli military action against Iran that began on February 28. On the evening of February 27, President Trump authorized the operation following urgent intelligence briefings warning of an imminent Iranian nuclear breakthrough.

In the early hours of February 28, coordinated airstrikes hit key nuclear facilities, as well as multiple command centers in Tehran.

The operation also,according to confirmed reports from multiple intelligence sources, resulted in the death of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Iran responded within hours by launching more than 200 ballistic missiles toward US bases in Iraq, Syria and Jordan, as well as several targets inside Israel and other neigbouring countries.

The conflict quickly spilled into the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian forces threatened to disrupt oil tanker traffic, prompting immediate spikes in global energy prices as well as oil prices.

Crypto markets entered full risk-off mode as the first strike reports emerged during Asian trading hours on February 28. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and most major altcoins recorded immediate double-digit percentage declines, with trading volumes surging as leveraged positions were forcibly liquidated across major exchanges.

The episode once again demonstrated that digital assets remain tightly correlated with traditional risk sentiment during sudden geopolitical shocks, rather than functioning as an independent safe haven.

4. Regulatory tailwinds continue despite macro turbulence with SEC case dismissals and Crypto.com charter approval

Even as markets reeled from geopolitics, regulatory development did not stop. Under new SEC Chair Paul Atkins the Commission executed a historic pivot, dropping or closing dozens of major crypto-related enforcement actions including key elements of long-running cases against Binance and Coinbase.

These steps reinforced the steady, albeit slower-than-hoped, institutional and regulatory acceptance of digital assets even amid heightened macro uncertainty.

Bitcoin ended February deeply oversold on higher timeframes after the late-month flush, with significant leverage cleared and sentiment turning sharply negative. While painful, such capitulation phases have historically preceded healthier recoveries once geopolitical and macro pressures stabilize.

Our approach stays consistent: preserve capital in cash. In an environment where even traditional safe-havens swing 10–20 % in days and geopolitical events can erase weeks of gains overnight, disciplined patience remains the strongest edge available.

All information in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, recommendation, or solicitation. Probinex bears no responsibility for any decisions made based on this content. Readers should conduct their own research and consult professional advisers before making any financial decisions.